Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

High-frequency monitoring of hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes in forested catchments of southern Chile     

Cristián Frêne  Juan J. Armesto  Freddy Véliz  Fernando D. Alfaro  Kathleen C. Weathers 《水文研究》2021,35(5):e14175

The variability of rainfall-dependent streamflow at catchment scale modulates many ecosystem processes in wet temperate forests. Runoff in small mountain catchments is characterized by a quick response to rainfall pulses which affects biogeochemical fluxes to all downstream systems. In wet-temperate climates, water erosion is the most important natural factor driving downstream soil and nutrient losses from upland ecosystems. Most hydrochemical studies have focused on water flux measurements at hourly scales, along with weekly or monthly samples for water chemistry. Here, we assessed how water and element flows from broad-leaved, evergreen forested catchments in southwestern South America, are influenced by different successional stages, quantifying runoff, sediment transport and nutrient fluxes during hourly rainfall events of different intensities. Hydrograph comparisons among different successional stages indicated that forested catchments differed in their responses to high intensity rainfall, with greater runoff in areas covered by secondary forests (SF), compared to old-growth forest cover (OG) and dense scrub vegetation (CH). Further, throughfall water was greatly nutrient enriched for all forest types. Suspended sediment loads varied between successional stages. SF catchments exported 455 kg of sediments per ha, followed by OG with 91 kg/ha and CH with 14 kg/ha, corresponding to 11 rainfall events measured from December 2013 to April 2014. Total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) concentrations in stream water also varied with rainfall intensity. In seven rainfall events sampled during the study period, CH catchments exported less nutrients (46 kg/ha TN and 7 kg/ha TP) than SF catchments (718 kg/ha TN and 107 kg/ha TP), while OG catchments exported intermediate sediment loads (201 kg/ha TN and 23 kg/ha TP). Further, we found significant effects of successional stage attributes (vegetation structure and soil physical properties) and catchment morphometry on runoff and sediment concentrations, and greater nutrients retention in OG and CH catchments. We conclude that in these southern hemisphere, broad-leaved evergreen temperate forests, hydrological processes are driven by multiple interacting phenomena, including climate, vegetation, soils, topography, and disturbance history.  相似文献   

太原盆地及周边地区双差层析成像   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王长在  吴建平  杨婷  王未来  范莉苹  房立华 《地球物理学报》2018,61(3):963-974

山西断陷带位于鄂尔多斯与华北地块交汇处，是我国著名的历史强震活动带之一，尤其是断陷盆地中部区域，6级以上地震频发.本研究旨在揭示忻定盆地中南部、太原盆地及临汾盆地中北部交汇处的深部结构特征，分析盆地的形成和演化，探讨该区域孕震环境.利用山西地震台网观测数据以及固定地震台站融合流动台站得到的地震数据，共7455个地震事件，采用双差层析成像方法，反演得到了太原盆地及周边地区的三维P波速度结构及精定位结果.层析成像结果显示，忻定盆地、太原盆地的中上地壳为明显的低速异常，被高速的石岭关隆起隔开，深部结构特征相对简单.太原盆地、临汾盆地及灵石隆起之间的深部结构特征较为复杂，反映了两个盆地演化过程的复杂性.穿过忻定盆地的速度剖面显示，在中地壳存在明显的低速异常体，且大部分地震都发生在该低速体上方；穿过太原盆地北部的剖面显示，该区域在20~25 km深度范围内有较密集的地震分布，并勾画出交城断裂呈犁形的断层特征；穿过太原盆地中部的剖面显示，太原盆地自西向东沉积层逐渐减薄；穿过临汾盆地的剖面揭示，汾东断裂在浅部倾角较陡，随深度增加倾角逐渐变小，倾向向东.  相似文献   

联合概率法在合并相邻台网地震目录中的应用:以2014年鲁甸序列为例          下载免费PDF全文

龙锋  蒋长胜  祁玉萍  刘自凤  傅莺 《地球物理学报》2018,61(7):2815-2827

中国目前实行的区域地震台网独立运行机制，使得在相邻不同台网的交界地区可能存在多个版本的地震目录和震相观测报告，影响了地震活动性分析与研究.为此，本文提出了一种基于联合概率的方法，可标明两个或多个相邻台网目录中相同的事件，合并它们的震相数据开展重新定位，并重构不同台网交界地区的统一地震目录.该方法的思路与分析步骤是：首先，计算获得不同台网之间具有最小发震时刻差异的两两地震的时空强差异分布，查找并剔除独立地震，计算事件合并的联合概率；其次，基于联合概率分析合并不同台网的地震目录和震相观测报告，对合并事件进行重新定位和定位误差分析，并基于G-R关系检验重构目录的完整性.本文以2014年鲁甸地震序列为例的初步应用结果显示，震相合并之后的地震定位精度相比之前单个台网的结果，特别是相比四川台网的目录，定位精度提高非常显著，合并后的目录与之前相对完整的云南目录接近，但相比由两个台网目录简单拼凑而成的目录更加准确.此外，研究还发现在目录合并过程中，对于4级以上的中强震，应选择M_S而不是以M_L震级标度；震相合并后被复用台站记录的到时信息可用于检测不同台网间的震相拾取是否存在系统偏差.本文提出的方法使得在相邻不同台网的过渡区形成一个统一且尽可能准确可靠的地震目录成为可能.  相似文献   

Moment Magnitude and Its Calculation     

Chen Yuntai  Liu Ruifeng 《中国地震研究》2018,32(4):447-455

In this paper, we give a brief introduction to the proposal and development history of the earthquake magnitude concept. Moment magnitude M_W is the best physical quantity for measuring earthquakes. Compared with other magnitude scales used traditionally, moment magnitude is not saturated for all earthquakes, regardless of big and small earthquakes, deep and shallow earthquakes, far field and near field seismic data, geodetic and geological data, moment magnitude can be measured, and can be connected with well-known magnitude scales such as surface wave magnitude M_S. Moment magnitude is a uniform magnitude scale, which is suitable for statistics with wide magnitude range. Moment magnitude is the preferred magnitude selected by the International Seismological community, and it is preferred by the departments responsible for publishing seismic information to the public.Moment magnitude is a uniform magnitude scale, which is suitable for statistics with wide magnitude range. Moment magnitude is a preferred magnitude for international seismology, it is preferred by the agency responsible for providing information about earthquakes to the public. We provide all formulas used in the calculation of moment magnitude, and the calculation steps in detail. We also analyzed some problems and rules to solve these problems by using different formulas and numerical value calculation steps.  相似文献   

Bacteria‐sediment associations in an alpine,freshwater environment and their effects on particle size,density and settling velocity          下载免费PDF全文

David C. Barrett  Kyle R. Hodder 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(10):2232-2242

This study measures the presence of bacteria‐sediment associations (BSAs) in an alpine, glacier‐fed watershed in the Southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, Canada. The impact of BSAs on the creation of flocculated particles and their settling velocity are quantified using a laser transmissometer. Results from the study indicate that BSAs are present in the watershed and vary over both space and time. The percentage of bacteria associated with sediment particles was found to range from < 1% to 40%. Major sources of planktonic bacteria such as agricultural land and wastewater treatment outflow co‐occur with large decreases in the BSA ratio. Laboratory analysis demonstrates that an increase in the concentration of bacteria was associated with a decrease in the volume concentration of small particles, and a decrease in both estimated density and measured settling velocity for particles in larger size classes; consistent with flocculated particles of increasing complexity arising from combinations of primary particles and/or BSAs. Paleoenvironmental reconstructions using laminated lake sediments in alpine, glacier‐fed systems benefit from a fuller understanding of the geomorphologic processes by which they formed. While bacteria are noted to enhance formation of flocculated particles in laboratory systems, their impact upon geomorphic processes in natural systems have yet to be fully explored. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Characteristics and Analysis of the Seismic Damage from the M_S7.0 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake in the Area between Songpan and Jiuzhaigou     

Yan Zhaolun  Peng Xiaobo  Li Shuguang  Hong Haichun 《中国地震研究》2018,32(2):173-188

This paper expounds the features of the buildings and analyzes the seismic disaster characteristics of the Jiuzhaigou M_S7. 0 earthquake in the area between Songpan and Jiuzhaigou. New buildings (especially the frame structure) had good anti-seismic performance,but brick-wood structures and brick-concrete structures sustained large amounts of damage in the earthquake. By computing the seismic damage index,we found that the seismic damage index of the frame structure was far less than that of civil structures and brick-wood structures. The seismic damage index of frame structures were all zero in the Ⅵ area,and increased rapidly with the increase of intensity,but the increasing range was reduced. We also discussed how to evaluate the intensity in areas where there was a lack of buildings or there was only one structure type,which can be referenced in future field work.  相似文献   

国家安全发展示范城市建设的震灾预防对策研究     

申文庄  贾启超  李峰 《震灾防御技术》2018,13(4):997-1002

我国地震多、强度大、分布广，强地震的现实危害和潜在威胁是我国城市安全发展所面临的重大挑战。国内外城市地震灾害惨痛经验表明，震灾预防能力建设不足的城市往往在强震中毁于一旦。实现我国城市安全可持续发展，必须高度重视和持续推进城市震灾预防能力建设，切实防控和消除地震灾害风险。本文在深入分析城市地震灾害影响因素的基础上，从震灾预防能力建设、城市地震灾害风险防控工作、法规及技术标准和评价体系等方面入手，提出了进一步加强城市震灾预防能力建设的对策建议。  相似文献   

东太平洋海隆13°N表层含金属沉积物物质组成与元素赋存状态     

荣坤波  曾志刚  武力  李康 《海洋科学》2018,42(7):70-79

为了解不同类型含金属沉积物在物质组成和元素赋存状态的差异,对东太平洋海隆13°N洋中脊两侧表层含金属沉积物(站号:E271和E53)进行了矿物学、地球化学分析,顺序提取实验,并与前人对轴部表层沉积物(站号:17A-EPR-TVG1)的研究结果作了对比分析。研究结果表明, E271和E53是远端含金属沉积物,由非浮力热液羽状流中颗粒物沉降所形成的;17A-EPR-TVG1沉积物是近喷口含金属沉积物,由黑烟囱或者热液硫化物丘状体崩塌、堆积,或者由热液羽状流中Fe-Mn氧化物和硫化物快速沉淀而形成的,近喷口沉积物比远端沉积物更富集Fe、Cu和Zn等元素。元素在两种含金属沉积物中的赋存状态基本相同,除了Fe,Cu,Zn,Mo和稀土元素(REE)等元素在远端沉积物中主要存在于Fe-Mn氧化物相,在近喷口沉积物中主要在残留相中。远端沉积物中REE页岩标准化配分模式与海水相似,表明REE主要来自海水,而近喷口沉积物中REE配分模式与热液流体相似,说明REE以高温热液流体来源为主。相关研究结果加深了对热液沉积作用研究的认识。  相似文献   

2008年10月西藏当雄M_W6.3地震震后形变提取与余滑反演          下载免费PDF全文

洪顺英  董彦芳  孟国杰  张奎  陈立泽 《地球物理学报》2018,61(12):4827-4837

2008年10月6日西藏当雄发生M_W6.3地震.本文利用震后2008年10月26日至2010年8月22日的16期ENVISAT ASAR数据，通过小基线集干涉测量、误差校正与MInTS（Multiscale InSAR Time Series）技术提取高精度的震后形变场，利用SDM（Steepest Descent Method）方法反演断层震后余滑演化过程，并分析震后余滑与同震滑动的关系.结果表明：当雄M_W6.3地震的近场震后形变场主要位于断层西侧，在时间演化上具有明显的对数函数衰减规律；震后余滑主要集中于断层中南段深0~15 km区间，最大的余滑量约0.07 m，位于断层深约9.28 km处，滑动角约-103°；震后余滑引起的地震矩能量M₀与矩震级M_W在时间演化上具有指数函数递增规律；当剪切模量μ=32 GPa，震后665天余滑释放的地震矩能量约为1.92×10¹⁷N·m，约占同震滑动释放地震矩的4.8%，相当于矩震级M_W5.46；虽然震后余滑已经延伸到断层浅部0~5 km区间，但由于余滑量相对较小，没有改变同震滑动在断层浅部区域的滑动亏损现象，这可能是2010年11月30日该区域又发生M_W5.3级余震的主要原因之一.  相似文献